India’s lacklustre performance in the third Test at GABBA has dealt a major blow to their chances of qualifying for a third consecutive World Test Championship (WTC) final. However, an unlikely ally—arch-rival Pakistan—could offer the assistance needed to secure their place.
Before the Border-Gavaskar Trophy began, India needed a commanding 4-1 series win over Australia to qualify for the WTC final without relying on external results. However, a draw in Brisbane has left their hopes hanging by a thread, with the team now requiring victories in the final two Tests to maintain a chance of progressing.
Winning both matches would boost India’s points percentage (PCT) to 60.52, enough to surpass Australia, even if the latter secures victories in their upcoming series against Sri Lanka. However, beating Australia on their home turf remains a formidable challenge, raising the likelihood of India needing outside help.
Complex scenarios and the role of Pakistan
If the Border-Gavaskar series concludes in a 2-2 draw, India’s qualification chances become dependent on results elsewhere. In this scenario, Sri Lanka would need to defeat Australia 1-0. Such an outcome would lower Australia’s PCT to 53.5, allowing India (55.26 PCT) to edge past and secure a spot in the final.
However, Australia’s dominance in Test cricket makes even a single Sri Lankan victory unlikely. If Australia wins at least one match in Sri Lanka, India would be eliminated.
The most intriguing twist involves Pakistan’s role in the equation. If Pakistan sweeps South Africa 2-0 in their upcoming Test series, India could secure a WTC final berth, provided the Border-Gavaskar series ends in a draw. A 2-0 victory for Pakistan would reduce South Africa’s PCT to 52.57, while India’s 55.25 PCT would ensure their place in the final alongside Australia.
Current standings and what lies ahead
As of now, South Africa leads the WTC table with a PCT of 63.33, followed by Australia (58.89) and India (55.89).
The battle for the two final spots remains wide open, with performances in the remaining Tests and support from rival teams determining the eventual finalists.
India’s campaign hinges on delivering strong performances in the last two Tests and the possibility of favourable outcomes in Pakistan and Sri Lanka’s series. With the stakes higher than ever, the WTC final race promises to be a thrilling climax.
