A new record for Southern California employment masks some worrisome hiring trends.
My trusty spreadsheet, filled with newly released state job figures that are not seasonally adjusted, found an all-time high 8.11 million people at work in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties in November. However, there’s a “but” in the upswing.
November’s hiring pace was 47% below the region’s pre-pandemic job growth for the month. The 34,000 added jobs from October was far below the average 64,100 hires in November between 2015-19.
To be fair, the local job market is still growing. The past year’s job growth of 88,100 equals 1.1% growth. That’s up from the 0.3% increase during the previous 12 months. However, it’s below the 2.2% growth rate throughout 2015-19.
Hiring patterns within key Southern California industries show some employer skittishness.
For example, two holiday-shopping sectors saw cooler hiring.
Gift-selling retailers had 768,600 local workers – up 18,900 in a month, but the November average was 32,000 hires in 2015-19. Local merchants have 11,600 more workers than November 2023.
And local logistics-utility businesses that deliver gifts had 833,200 workers – up 11,200 in a month, just 100 more than the average 11,100 hires in 2015-19. The niche added 10,500 jobs in a year.
Then there’s the contentious fast-food industry, which this year had a controversial wage boost to a $20 hourly minimum wage.
These restaurants employed 356,500 workers in November, down 3,200 in a month vs. average 600 November hires in 2015-19. Employment is also down 800 in a year.
And the shaky real estate market means construction’s 370,800 local workers were down 7,400 in November vs. the typical seasonal cuts of 1,660 in 2015-19. Construction has 8,000 fewer workers over the year.
Unemployment lower
The month’s employment increases translated to a dip in regional joblessness.
The four-county unemployment rate was 5.4% in November, compared with 5.6% in the previous month. But unemployment was 4.8% a year earlier and it averaged 4.7% in 2015-19.
The region had 473,100 counted as officially out of work in November, down 20,100 in a month but up 51,600 in a year. The jobless count is 11% above the 424,700 average of pre-pandemic 2015-19.
Regional differences
Slower hiring was found across the region’s key metropolitan areas …
Los Angeles County: 4.64 million workers, after adding 14,900 in a month and growing by 46,200 in a year. Hiring averaged 31,200 for the month in 2015-19. Unemployment? 5.8% vs. 6% a month earlier; 5% a year ago; and 5.2% average in 2015-19.
Orange County: Record-high 1.72 million workers, after adding 4,200 in a month and growing by 14,600 in a year. Hiring averaged 9,000 for the month in 2015-19. Unemployment? 4% vs. 4.2% a month earlier; 3.8% a year ago; and 3.6% average in 2015-19.
Inland Empire: Record-high 1.74 million workers, after adding 14,900 in a month and growing by 27,300 in a year. Hiring averaged 23,880 for the month in 2015-19. Unemployment? 5.3% vs. 5.5% a month earlier; 5% a year ago; and 5.2% average in 2015-19.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
